Steven Thompson
NL East bottom feeders are set to close things out in the Nation’s Capital on Thursday night when the Washington Nationals and Philadelphia Phillies put a bow on their midweek three-game set. Both squad’s figured to be in the mix for division bragging rights at the outset of the abbreviated 2020 MLB season, but neither has been able to live up to expectations to this point. Horrendous pitching both from the starters and bullpen has seen the Phillies get out to a poor 10-14 start, while the defending World Series champions have managed wins in just 11 of 25 games mostly due to being average across the board in just about every pertinent counting stat. Luckily for them, they’ve owned the recent rivalry with the Phillies by taking nine of the last 10 skirmishes as well as nine straight as hosts leading up to Tuesday’s series opener.
First pitch for the game between the Philadelphia Phillies and Washington Nationals is scheduled for Thursday, August 27, 2020, at 6:37 p.m. ET from Nationals Park. The matchup will be shown live on FOX.
Odds Analysis
The Phillies initially hit the board at 23-1 to win the World Series this season. With it playing to a sub .500 record thus far, MLB bettors can now get them at 30-1. At four-games under .500, Philly has cost its supporters $573 overall with $321 of that deficit coming on the road where it’s won just three of nine games. It’s currently 14-1 to win the National League and +700 to stage a comeback and take down the NL East. Washington opened 10-1 choices to repeat as world champs, but can now be had at 25-1 to win it all. With only 34 games remaining on the docket, the Nats would need to go 24-14 the rest of the way to surpass their 33-game season win total. Don’t mind me, I’m just patting myself on the back for suggesting a strong under position on Washington at the outset of the season!
Probable Pitchers
Spencer Howard: The Phillies continue to wait for their prized rookie to have that breakout performance. The youngster hasn’t given the team much to believe it’ll occur anytime soon with the righty conceding 19 hits (4 HR) and 8 ER through 11.2 total innings over three starts. Yes, you’re reading that correctly. He’s averaged just under 3.2 innings per start, and has allowed the opposition to rip him to the tune of a .358 batting average against. Thankfully, Washington has been much more lethal versus lefties (.891 OPS) than it’s been against righties (.722 OPS).
Max Scherzer: It’s tough watching excellence break down, but that looks to be exactly what’s happening to Mad Max for a few seasons now. Yes, he was still in the running for the NL Cy Young Award last season with a sub 3.00 ERA and 12.7 K/9 average, but he was hittable evidenced by allowing 144 hits (18 HR) over 172 innings of work. Through a six-pack of 2020 starts, Scherzer owns a 4.31 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. That said, he’s owned the Phillies going 11-3 with a 2.62 ERA and 0.97 WHIP over 20 career starts. Washington won two of his three 2019 starts against them; all at home.
Player Prop Targets
Though the Phillies have done a fantastic job limiting strikeouts against right-handed pitching in doing so only 125 times (No. 2), I’d still recommend hitting Scherzer’s K prop over the number in this matchup. You know darn well Mad Max will enter this start stark raving mad after giving up a total of 9 ER and 4 HR to the Orioles and Marlins in his two most recent turns. Scherzer racked up 9, 10 and 10 strikeouts in his three made starts against the Phillies last season. And check this out; J.T. Realmuto has fanned in 13-of-40 at-bats, Andrew McCutchen in 15-of-28, Rhys Hoskins 10-of-17, Jean Segura 5-of-15. Bottom line, linemakers are going to hang a lofty number but there will still be value backing the high side of it just going by history alone. Add the future Hall of Famer’s desire to bounce back with a lights out outing, and it looks to be money in the bank!
MLB Pick
Anytime you deal with the Phillies, you must take the bullpen into account. The unit cost me my series bet on them in Atlanta this past weekend. Even with Brandon Workman being brought over to instill some normalcy in the ninth, it was still an adventure in both of his outings. Even so, it’s highly likely Philly’s pen doesn’t even come close to deciding this one. Not with how mediocre Howard has been thus far paired with Scherzer out to log a bounceback effort. Though Mad Max has struggled, Washington has still come out on top in each of his last three starts as well as four of six to date. I personally won’t be playing this matchup pregame. Instead, I’ll hope Philly gets out to an early lead so I can fade its bullpen at a readjusted easier to swallow price on the live lines. I suggest you do the same!
MLB Odds: Nationals 7, Phillies 3
