The Green Bay Packers certainly look like the right NFL pick for Sunday’s game against the Houston Texans. But is this a trap game?
Aha, we knew it – Aaron Rodgers is washed up. Rodgers and his Green Bay Packers got discount double-checked by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last Sunday, losing 38-10 as 3-point road faves; the two-time MVP threw two interceptions, including a pick-six, and ate four sacks for his troubles.
Stick the fork in him, he’s done. That’s what the lamestream sports media would have you believe. In the reality-based world, the Buccaneers have the top-performing defense in the NFL, while this Sunday’s opponents, the Houston Texans most certainly do not.
Actually, if we wanted to get really meta, “having” the league’s best defense doesn’t make sense, either. But you will find the Bucs at No. 1 on the Football Outsiders defensive efficiency charts through Week 6, including No. 1 against the pass. The Texans? Look down… way down… there they are at No. 27 overall (No. 20 pass, No. 28 rush).
Mr. Rodgers should put up better numbers this week against what’s left of the Texans. That’s “should” as in probability, not morals. Stupid word police. Now that we’ve established our old-school handicapping hypothesis that Green Bay (4-1 SU and ATS) might have some bounce-back betting value for our Week 7 NFL picks, let’s see what the computers think. FiveThirtyEight project the Packers as 4-point road faves; Jeff Sagarin’s eigenvector whatsit has them at –9.09, up from –4.87 using his Rating numbers. However you squeeze it, there’s enough room between three and four points for at least a recreational bet.